Ahead of Manchester United‘s biggest game of the season, manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has a headache. Who does he play at centre back?
The Red Devils go into Wednesday’s night Europa League final against Villarreal with major question marks over who is going to be their centre-back pairing in the Gdansk showpiece.
Normally this would be captain Harry Maguire and Victor Lindelof, but the former has practically no chance of playing due to an ankle injury sustained earlier this month.
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has plenty food for thought ahead of Man United’s Europa League final
Captain and centre back Harry Maguire looks set to miss the final due to an ankle injury
He suffered the injury during United’s 3-1 Premier League win away at Aston Villa on May 9
Eric Bailly (left) will be hoping to partner Victor Lindelof (right) in central defence for United
Axel Tuanzebe is vying with Bailly to be Lindelof’s centre-back partner in Maguire’s absence
With Maguire unfit that leaves Solskjaer with two options to partner Lindelof: either Eric Bailly or Axel Tuanzebe.
One of the duo is set to start alongside Lindelof after Maguire failed to take part in the club’s final training session on Tuesday.
The United captain could only watch the session from the dugout before leaving 15 minutes early, adding to the notion that he is going to be a spectator come kick-off.
In Bailly and Tuanzebe, Solskjaer has his third and fourth-choice centre backs. The duo auditioned for a place in Wednesday’s XI by both starting in the 2-1 Premier League win at Wolves on Sunday while Lindelof was rested.
Between them they have played 38 matches in all competitions this season, although it’s clear that Bailly is the preferred option.
Bailly has only played two games more than Tuanzebe (20 to 18) but has started in exactly double of those (18 to nine). As a result, Bailly has been given more playing time too having been on the pitch for 1,590 minutes in comparison to Tuanzebe’s 919.
Bailly has started 18 games this season for Manchester United, double the number of Tuanzebe
What also works in Bailly’s favour is that he has kept eight clean sheets compared to Tuanzebe’s three.
Another telling factor in Bailly’s favour is the tackle success rate. The Ivory Coast international outshines his team-mate in this category boasting a 92.31 per cent success rate. In comparison Tuanzebe’s is just 54.17.
The pair are pretty identical though when it comes to duels. Bailly has won 33 of his 61 aerial duels (0.54 per cent), while Tuanzebe has won 45 of his 85 aerial contests (0.47 per cent).
In terms of overall duels, Bailly has won 64 of his 112 (0.57 per cent) – a figure marginally better than Tuanzebe’s 45 from 85 (0.53 per cent).
At 27, Bailly is the more experienced centre back and would appear to be the frontrunner for selection. As well as the statistical evidence noted above, he has the greater nous of playing on the bigger occasions.
Tuanzebe has won 45 of his 85 aerial duels in all competitions for the Red Devils this campaign
He started the 2017 Carabao Cup final (which United won 3-2 against Southampton at Wembley) so has tasted the pressures of a showpiece event while at the club. He would have likely started the successful Europa League final that 2016-17 season too had he not been sent off against Celta Vigo in the semi-final second leg.
United’s No 3 is in his fifth season at the club but his time has been blighted by injuries. Although rash at times, he looks the perfect foil alongside Maguire as he is quick, strong and is prepared to put his body on the line.
Having signed a new contract last month until 2024, Bailly will be desperate to play against his old side, Villarreal. His knowledge of Spanish football is also another factor that could weigh heavily in his favour.
Despite all roads pointing to Bailly though, as a pair he and Lindelof are not as fruitful together when compared to Tuanzebe and the Swede.
In three matches as central-defensive duo Lindelof and Tuanzebe, 23, are yet to lose together in which they have started. It’s a small sample size but they have won two of their three matches, drawing once – for a win-rate of 66.7 per cent.
In contrast, Lindelof and Bailly have only won once in four attempts this season together (drawing two and losing the other) for a win rate of 25 per cent.
Bailly has all the attributes to be the perfect foil for Maguire but he’s been blighted by injuries
United average 0.7 goals against them when it’s Lindelof and Tuanzebe at the back, when it’s the former and Bailly this jumps up to 1.5.
Maguire’s presence as a leader and footballer will be a blow to Solskjaer. A virtual ever-present this season, United boast a 59.60 per cent win ratio with him in the team (31 wins from 52 games). Without him this drops to 50 per cent (four wins from eight matches).
Solskjaer will have a lot of thinking to do over who should replace his captain if, as expected, he misses out due to injury.
Although his record with Lindelof this season may not suggest it, the more experienced Bailly appears to be the safer bet.
All roads lead towards Bailly starting in Maguire’s absence for the Europa League final